• Hans van Mameren

The fear of change

All those who decline Climate Change as a man-made event and only call it a hoax always say that scientists are not unanimous. They also claim that science is a mathematical system which allows only one answer. Thus, scientists should all agree and therefore as long as they do not all agree, nothing is proven. That is also true for the climate topic. This means you would need to know all the parameters and formulas and only when everything is correct, one answer will come out. However, when we know most, but not all, it can still give a range of outcomes. Climate is also about meteorology and that has improved very much in the past decades. For me and my colleagues at sea, I used to work in on board ships, the weather forecast was vital. It decided about life and death, nothing less. Then you follow the forecast with great attention. Fifty years ago, a forecast was for 24 hours and an outlook for the next day. Now we get a forecast for 3 or 5 days and an outlook for the next week(s). True, sometimes they are wrong, but only a very few times. So, these scientists have learned a lot and filled in many of the missing puzzle. Their models get better and better. They must do something right and their skills are proven. Yet there are people who disagree but most do. Where they differ, it is on details. When 90% say there is Climate Change, it would be logic to accept it. Making a weather forecast is a complicated task. Predicting a Climate Change is even more complicated and the fact that all kind of arguments are thrown in cannot hide the impression that something is changing.

When bad weather is on the horizon you batten down. A good ship comes through. An old pieces of junk will not. Resilience will strengthen and one will ride out the storm.

Not for some. They don’t want to change. Not because scientist argue but because those deniers are afraid of change, fear for their privileges. No one in Kiribati, along the Mekong or in Bangladesh argues in that way. They are confronted daily with Climate Change. They want change, but for the better. They have no privileges to lose. Only elites have things to lose. Their fear to lose, drives their resistance. When you prefer to believe the 10% of scientists above the 90% of the others, it cannot be done on grounds of science. Only on psychology. Better be brave and admit that you fear the change, do not have the courage to face it. Denial is so much more comfortable, just blame the others and your problem is gone.

The ambition to change for the better, seems to be only for the brave or the desperate.

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